The Russian president as soon as once more brandishes the specter of nuclear weapons towards Westerners handled as aggressors. The atomic headlong rush will not be inevitable.
On paper, Vladimir Putin’s plan is chilling. Manage referendums on becoming a member of Russia in 4 areas of Ukraine occupied by Russian troops. Legally ratify these annexations. And reply by all means, together with nuclear, to any assault towards these now Russian territories. Which quantities to remodeling the invasion of Ukraine right into a defensive conflict.
This isn’t the primary time that the Russian president has threatened Westerners to make use of atomic weapons. His favourite instrument of terror when his again is towards the wall. Every time the identical query arises: is he cornered to the purpose of finishing up his menace? Admittedly, its troops are in problem on the entrance, its military has logistical issues and lacks ammunition, its financial system is affected by sanctions and its diplomatic isolation is accelerating. Sufficient to make believable the situation of recourse to nuclear weapons – tactical in any case – to regain the benefit on the battlefield.
However this army headlong rush will not be inevitable. And Vladimir Putin will not be devoid of all rationality. It may draw new borders with referendums, but it surely can not persuade the vast majority of Russians to offer their lives for Kherson or Donbass. He due to this fact gave up decreeing basic mobilization, whereas the prospect of being despatched to the flag is already scaring away hundreds of younger Russians. Putin additionally is aware of that the anti-Western entrance is shrinking. China, India, Turkey push him to place an finish to the battle, supply of world chaos.
Vladimir Putin will not be in such a determined place that he has to interrupt the taboo of nuclear weapons. The Russian military has not but collapsed and its energy will not be threatened. So many causes to not give in to panic, nor to its atomic blackmail.
What’s Malika has been head of the World part since 2019. She beforehand labored at RTS as a reporter, journalist within the Worldwide part, correspondent in Paris and presenter of the TJ. She gained the Jean Dumur Prize in 2004. Extra informations@NedirMalika