The Russian president as soon as once more brandishes the specter of nuclear weapons in opposition to Westerners handled as aggressors. The atomic headlong rush shouldn’t be inevitable.
On paper, Vladimir Putin’s plan is chilling. Set up referendums on becoming a member of Russia in 4 areas of Ukraine occupied by Russian troops. Legally ratify these annexations. And reply by all means, together with nuclear, to any assault in opposition to these now Russian territories. Which quantities to reworking the invasion of Ukraine right into a defensive conflict.
This isn’t the primary time that the Russian president has threatened Westerners to make use of atomic weapons. His favourite instrument of terror when his again is in opposition to the wall. Every time the identical query arises: is he cornered to the purpose of finishing up his risk? Admittedly, its troops are in issue on the entrance, its military has logistical issues and lacks ammunition, its economic system is affected by sanctions and its diplomatic isolation is accelerating. Sufficient to make believable the state of affairs of recourse to nuclear weapons – tactical in any case – to regain the benefit on the battlefield.
However this navy headlong rush shouldn’t be inevitable. And Vladimir Putin shouldn’t be devoid of all rationality. It may possibly draw new borders with referendums, nevertheless it can not persuade nearly all of Russians to offer their lives for Kherson or Donbass. He subsequently gave up decreeing common mobilization, whereas the prospect of being despatched to the flag is already scaring away hundreds of younger Russians. Putin additionally is aware of that the anti-Western entrance is shrinking. China, India, Turkey push him to place an finish to the battle, supply of world chaos.
Vladimir Putin shouldn’t be in such a determined place that he has to interrupt the taboo of nuclear weapons. The Russian military has not but collapsed and its energy shouldn’t be threatened. So many causes to not give in to panic, nor to its atomic blackmail.
What’s Malika has been head of the World part since 2019. She beforehand labored at RTS as a reporter, journalist within the Worldwide part, correspondent in Paris and presenter of the TJ. She received the Jean Dumur Prize in 2004. Extra informations@NedirMalika