Climate. Towards a record for La Niña which should last until the end of 2022.

The La Niña cold current episode is expected to continue at least until the end of the year after starting in September 2020, a record for the 21st century. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) assessed the probability of this scenario at 70% on Wednesday in Geneva.

The scenario of a continuation from December to next February is established at just over 50%. Observed in the tropical Pacific, the La Niña current was intensified by the strengthening of the winds between mid-July and August 2022.

This situation has exacerbated droughts and floods in different parts of the world. The effects of La Niña are usually opposite to those of El Niño, a warm current.

No effect on heating

“A La Niña episode that spans three consecutive years is truly exceptional,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. The cooling is temporarily slowing the rise in global temperatures, “but it will not halt or reverse the warming trend over the long term,” he insists.

Among the consequences, the drought is intensifying in part of Africa, where it is expected to continue for a fifth consecutive period, and in southern Latin America. Another problem according to the organization, rainfall is above average in part of Asia.

Mandated by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the WMO continues to work on warning systems against meteorological threats for each individual within a few years. Despite La Niña, sea surface temperatures, well above average in most areas, are expected to contribute to above normal temperatures over land from September through November. The forecast rainfall is in line with the effects of La Niña, the organization further asserts.

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